seriosuly underrated comment. I finished a 20 min bike ride and feel clear headed. Havent' consumed anything other than black coffee. Most people are so used to eating continuously and never train their bodies to be metabolically flexible. Doesn't help that the "most important meal of the day" shtick was invented by cereal companies trying to sell us crap dessert masquerading as health food.
All these fancy HPC languages are all nice and dandy, but the hard reality I see on our cluster is that most of the work is done in Python, R and even Perl and awk. MPI barely reached us and people still prefer huge single machines to proper distributed computing. Yeah, bioinformatics is from another planet.
You missed the part where he is consistently unimpressed by the failure of LLMs to do the task he hands to them, it seems. Go re-read Section 1.5 "Models are Idiots". Make sure to read the footnotes. They're sure to address most of the counterarguments you might make.
> Is that "breathless boosterism?"
You missed the part where I said
Due to their nearly-universally breathless nature, I know that's how I classify the overwhelming majority of such discussions.
> Hadn't come across this one before, but there's not much in there I hadn't seen and even discussed in past comments. ... It does mention (and then gloss over) the real finding of the DORA and related reports...
Yeah, I figured that you would be unable (or unwilling) to understand this one. Here's the summary, straight from the author's keyboard:
* Fred Brooks' No Silver Bullet was correct.
* No Silver Bullet applies to LLMs the way it applied to other things, and empirical evidence on LLM coding impact sure seems to agree.
* You'll get better returns from working on strong software development fundamentals than from forcing all your programmers to use Claude for everything, and that's a repeated message in basically all the major literature.
* If LLMs do turn into a revolutionary world-changing silver bullet giving everyone coding superpowers, you'll be able to just adopt them fully when that happens.
There’s nothing odd about two belts in this situation. One is the belt for the pants and the other is the utility belt holding the pouches. You need to be able to add and remove the utilities without having your pants fall.
The weird choice is having a belt and suspenders. That only works as a fashion choice, which makes little sense for an explorer.
That mutually exclusive with our originating comment you think?:
"...I always paid for the resources I used. Just because you consume a lot of resources by accident that doesn't mean you shouldn't have to pay for it."
> We are rapidly moving from deterministic engineering to probabilistic engineering, and our tools, our training, and our organizational instincts are still built for the old paradigm.
There's some bad news: it's never been a non-probablistic engineering.
A key word is Failt-tolerance.
The engineering has never been fully deterministic. Same as running the systems.
Yes, right. Well McD sure is serious, up to possibly letting customers walk out of restaurants rather than serve them at the registers. They really want a conveyer belt to deliver the food, no human interaction at all if you insist on visiting some of their expensive real estate.
No sooner did I hit post than I had to run. But on my way, I thought with what I wanted to edit my post, which was to clarify the current testing Taco Bell is doing in the drive through. But I assume wherever you do it, once it gets good enough, maybe you can move it into the restaurant. Like you say, labor savings, so they'd have to move it into the restaurant the moment they could get away with it.
This fantasy of AI replacing C-suites, CEOs or whatever is very symptomatic of naive tech-folk outlook, completely blind towards sociological and political reality.
"LLMS are good at "find me a two week vacation two months from now"?"
Of course they are. I gave one a similar prompt a few weeks ago, albeit quite a bit more verbose (actually I just dictated it, train of thought, with couple of 'eh actually, forget what I just said about x, do y instead") and although I wasn't brave enough to give it my credit card and finalize the bookings, it would have paid for the bookings I had it set up for me, had I done that. I gave it some RL constraints, like "we're meeting friends in place xyz at such and such date, make sure we're there then" and it did everything from watching we wouldn't be spending too many hours driving per day to check that hotels are kid friendly to things to do and see and what public holidays there are so that we know when supermarkets close early and a bunch of details I wouldn't have thought of. It checked my (and my wife's) calendar, checked what I had going on work wise, etc.
That is a fully solved 'problem' man. LLMs will run the whole thing for you. Just provide it with the login details to booking websites and you're off to the races.
I did have it upgrade the car, even if that pushed the cost outside the budget I gave it. Next time it'll know LOL.
