I think the only thing that might protect Cynthia Dwork or Wei Dai would be if they were wise enough to not believe they were immune to being scammed.
Yes, the person I was talking about wouldn't be successful against a more sophisticated target. But there is no amount of technical sophistication that makes you immune against the right scam because even the most technically adept has finite time to consider things, and they're all still human.
Your excellent point about "learning twice as much gives you far less than twice the resilience" means that essentially no one can be completely immune, once you factor in time.
So I think only the wisdom to really appreciate your vulnerability is universally protective, even if you are an honest to god super-guru.
Case in point, witness the fact that one of the early Bitcoin developers publicly endorsed and obvious fraudster claiming to have invented Bitcoin but who can't even get basically technical points about Bitcoin right, much less some new and unfamiliar system. In some alternative universe where that hadn't happened his name might have easily found its way onto your list.
I agree with you that the kind of top flight technical background needed to shunt off even fairly unsophisticated scammers is very rare.
> But I first heard about Bitcoin in 2011, so it's not quite unimaginable that I'll get a shot at the next one also.
Indeed, but there you wouldn't have needed to expend much-- and not anything that could have directly made a scammer money.
I've always thought it was weird to see people who in 2011 said Bitcoin was a scam and didn't mine any though they could have at little cost... years later turn around and dump their life savings into super sketchy premined altcoins. I think they learned the wrong lesson. Their skepticism wasn't a problem.
"Once you factor in time" is a very good point, and one I shouldn't underestimate because it's almost always a factor in scams. Most people can avoid being scammed with enough time and space to consider, and most scammers are excellent at denying those to their marks.
And yeah, now that I look at the list of people who've claimed to be Satoshi, it's pretty alarming to see how many have gotten at least one major Bitcoin figure to vouch for them. Even Craig Wright, who claimed he'd move the genesis block and then simply didn't - I guess being a Bitcoin guru isn't enough to make sure you actually verify somebody's published transactions.
I suspect that you need several times the technical sophistication of a scammer to catch them out, and if they know who they're pitching to the bar might rise unattainably high. The fact that it normally doesn't, that even I know enough to catch out scammers, has less to do with protective expertise and more to do with not being in their intended demographic of marks. Which ties into your last point: I don't really regret not buying into Bitcoin given what I knew, but my takeaway is "don't be afraid to throw $100 at a crazy idea", not "try to search out hidden gems", and so I'm not likely to be a high-dollar target for later scams.
Yes, the person I was talking about wouldn't be successful against a more sophisticated target. But there is no amount of technical sophistication that makes you immune against the right scam because even the most technically adept has finite time to consider things, and they're all still human.
Your excellent point about "learning twice as much gives you far less than twice the resilience" means that essentially no one can be completely immune, once you factor in time.
So I think only the wisdom to really appreciate your vulnerability is universally protective, even if you are an honest to god super-guru.
Case in point, witness the fact that one of the early Bitcoin developers publicly endorsed and obvious fraudster claiming to have invented Bitcoin but who can't even get basically technical points about Bitcoin right, much less some new and unfamiliar system. In some alternative universe where that hadn't happened his name might have easily found its way onto your list.
I agree with you that the kind of top flight technical background needed to shunt off even fairly unsophisticated scammers is very rare.
> But I first heard about Bitcoin in 2011, so it's not quite unimaginable that I'll get a shot at the next one also.
Indeed, but there you wouldn't have needed to expend much-- and not anything that could have directly made a scammer money.
I've always thought it was weird to see people who in 2011 said Bitcoin was a scam and didn't mine any though they could have at little cost... years later turn around and dump their life savings into super sketchy premined altcoins. I think they learned the wrong lesson. Their skepticism wasn't a problem.