- Beer virus is about to eat Seattle and SF Bay Area. If it does... then it will eat all the US eventually. Hospitals overrun etc. People won't be working. Most disruptive event since WW2.
- Supply chains run dry mid April. Huge supply shock... and will be arriving right as the beer virus starts to crush the west coast.
No one has a risk model that can price those things. It's entirely possible large institutions will go insolvent in the chaos.
Seems like a pretty big assumption that those two cities would be eaten. It's definitely spreading and causing disruption, but I don't really see how it's going to grind both cities to a halt. Especially with the current amount of information we have regarding the virus. We need to know more before we can draw such conclusions. China seems to be recovering already.
