The problem is as soon as new predictions are made it causes the people participating in an economy to change their behavior.
Thats why people working at central banks like the Federal Reserve will try to downplay risks like inflation to prevent signalling that theyll raise interest rates causing a market correction or businesses from raising prices to deal with it.
I think the cats out of the bag now but they sure would love to stuff it back in the bag.
I don't subscribe to it myself. But when you have a system that's state is dependant on the descisions and therefore actions of its participants anything that influences those decisions, i.e. signals, influences its state. Even the actions of individual actors in a market can be treated as signal.
I think of it a bit like Chaos Theory. An investor saw a butterfly flap its wings in Fiji which triggered a chain of events culminating in the DOW dropping 800 points on a day.
See e.g. Renaissance Technologies and their fund. Market goes up, it goes up, market goes down, it goes up. And the guy who runs it keeps his cards super close to his chest and doesn't discuss the methods at all.
Actually if someone had a model like that, they have all the incentives to keep it a secret. Also it would allow simulations to be ran and make "good" decisions. But we have better odds of cracking the prediction problem than it's responsible use.
Thats why people working at central banks like the Federal Reserve will try to downplay risks like inflation to prevent signalling that theyll raise interest rates causing a market correction or businesses from raising prices to deal with it.
I think the cats out of the bag now but they sure would love to stuff it back in the bag.