FSD can already handle most drives really well, and has progressed further than any competitor (by a wide margin). I'd expect ~20-30% would take the refund.
It can. But the drives it can't drive well can be catastrophic. There are countless videos and reports of FSD doing the exact wrong thing at the worst possible time, and immediate driver intervention was require to avoid catastrophe. Mind boggling things like swerving on oncoming traffic.