Are you intentionally trying to conflate weather and climate? Is it hard to believe that short term trends (weather) are much harder to predict than long term trends (climate) because you’re smoothing out the chaos of the short term behavior?
A poor analogy is that you can’t predict where an atom is located and its speed due to quantum, yet when you average over a bunch of atoms you some pretty useful bounds on the shape of the problem.
Also, we already have plenty of data to evaluate the models - climate models are underpredicting the consequences (ie things are hotter and more volatile than climate models predicted). This indicates the models are conservative about the predictions in the wrong direction (you want to be predicting 20% worse than reality than 20% better because of it impacts planning). The reason they’re likely wrong is that we don’t have a full accounting of the ways in which human activity causes warming.
A poor analogy is that you can’t predict where an atom is located and its speed due to quantum, yet when you average over a bunch of atoms you some pretty useful bounds on the shape of the problem.
Also, we already have plenty of data to evaluate the models - climate models are underpredicting the consequences (ie things are hotter and more volatile than climate models predicted). This indicates the models are conservative about the predictions in the wrong direction (you want to be predicting 20% worse than reality than 20% better because of it impacts planning). The reason they’re likely wrong is that we don’t have a full accounting of the ways in which human activity causes warming.