The point I was trying to make is that the payoffs for X, for many real-world situations, are dwarfed by payoffs for "beyond X." So, in those situations, it's not a mind trick but rational to bet on the rare but high-paying "beyond X" potential, even though a sure "X" is available.
In other words, when Payoff(X) < Sum(Probability(x) * Payoff(x) for all x > X), it's rational to take the bet, not the sure thing.
The problem is that, usually, for people with experience, awards, etc, the probability of other people surpassing the former is pretty small. "The next big thing" is a strict subset of "Maybe the next big thing".
The point I was trying to make is that the payoffs for X, for many real-world situations, are dwarfed by payoffs for "beyond X." So, in those situations, it's not a mind trick but rational to bet on the rare but high-paying "beyond X" potential, even though a sure "X" is available.
In other words, when Payoff(X) < Sum(Probability(x) * Payoff(x) for all x > X), it's rational to take the bet, not the sure thing.