They are sending fighter jet squadrons into their airspace pretty much constantly though. I don't see any likely scenario where Taiwan maintains sovereignty in the next ten to twenty years. They will either be assimilated as a useful puppet or there will be military action to bring Taiwan in line. China has been flexing their military might for a while now and they can't afford to look weak by backing down or letting Taiwan build up their defenses further.
Is there a legend for that map? I'm not sure if I'm interpreting it correctly or not.. I see the box over Taiwan, but that extends over into the mainland. Do they really scramble jets in cases where Chinese fighters don't even go over the water? Or is that line that goes over the water the start of what they consider to be their airspace?
I don't think they scramble jets on Taiwan, no. But every time a news report comes out about Chinese jets representing escalating aggression towards Taiwan, that is the boundary they are actually talking about.
> … or there will be military action to bring Taiwan in line.
I don't see how this won't cause further escalation… perhaps just one ohio class authorized to target up to 288 civilian and military installations needed to "bring Taiwan in line"…
What other escalation would there be if the ccp invades and installs a new government or just makes it part of China?
I think that would be game over for Taiwan and the only blowback on China would be sanctions. It would go over exactly like what happened with Russia in the Ukraine. Everyone would be pissed at China but no one would want to start ww3.
Perhaps an ohio class sub can be leased (crew and all) to the ROC and under direct command of the civilian leadership…
Of course none of this has to be made public with the proper FISA authorizations…
In such a scenario the PRC is the one starting ww3, but perhaps not if the ROC goes public and states that its simply defending itself… if NK can get away with it, I don't see why any other nation state cannot pursue the same strategy…
PRC would know something like this is in place when the ROC no longer decides to scramble the fighters as much :P
And yes, invading Taiwan after China took over is an option, but I don't see how it's possible that option would be chosen. Engaging another super power like China is extremely dangerous and would lead to a massive conflict. Our carrier strike groups are mighty, but they would be overwhelmed by anti ship missiles very quickly. If the United States were serious about defending Taiwan in a conflict, we would have troops in Taiwan as a deterrent like we do with other countries in the region.
China currently gets most of its iron ore from Australia. It is completely unworkable to transport that by air as are many other things. (If China had to for example transport petroleum from the Persian Gulf by air, my guess is that it would cost more petroleum to fuel the operation than the operation would move. ISTR that most of the cargo by weight transiting the oceans is petroleum.) A naval blockade would harm China more than conquering Taiwan would help China.
> A naval blockade would harm China more than conquering Taiwan would help China
Agreed. And not just iron ore, military and civ populations need to be fed:
There's also the fact that most of China soybean supply comes from imports (around 90 percent of its soybeans are imported from the international market and are mostly used in oil and animal feed)… China would have to be able to deploy/resupply some sort of protection for those ships for any cargo imported.
There's lots of different avenues that can be pursued by a varying number of state/non state actors, that will have varying levels of impact and feasible response to such, so I really find the thinking "ww3 is highly unlikely so, [x] actor/nation state can do w/e it wants with no material consequences" really lazy…
